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Seasonal fluctuation in Hryvnia FX rates

Currently the Ukrainian Hryvnia is experiencing seasonal fluctuation. This is considered standard in Ukraine, where the economy is somewhat seasonal in nature. On one hand, the large agribusiness sector's demand for foreign currency goes up during the harvest season, and as Winter comes rolling in, more currency is needed for energy spending. This means that usually the Hryvnia is expected to trade cheaper against the dollar and euro during the Autumn and Winter seasons. Right now one dollar buys about 28,5 UAH, compared to 26,5 UAH a month ago.

This year the Hryvnia may weaken more than usually, as the Ukrainian government is experiencing a lack of money. The government is depending on receiving the next tranche of IMF loan money, which will be released only if certain preconditions are met. These would be the establishment of an anticorruption court and the raising of gas tariffs for households.

Economists predict that should Ukraine fail to secure the next tranche of IMF money, the result could be a default on some debt and macroeconomic instability. This would also mean a weaker Hryvnia than normally. 

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